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INDABA REVIEW Shabangu noted that without private sector capital, the industry would not survive. However, she defended plans to go ahead with state-owned mining ventures. "There is room for both private and public returns, indeed these are interdependent." Turning to the dire position in which the platinum industry finds itself, Shabangu said government was aware of the situation—a departure from earlier, more belligerent statements on the issue. "We understand the pain faced by the platinum sector; we are part of it as government, as a country, and we need to find lasting solutions among ourselves. It is not their problem, it is our problem as a whole, as a country, and we have to share that problem in finding a common solution in that." The minister went on to list the few bright spots on the horizon. The number of mines in South Africa had increased from 993 in 2004 to almost 1,600 in 2011. Associated revenue generated grew from R98 billion in 2004 to R370 billion by the end of 2011. Employment, Shabangu said, grew in the mining industry from just less than 449,000 in 2004 to a little above 530,000 in June 2012, before it started to regress slightly in the third quarter of last year. Shabangu deviated from her set speech to thank her bête noir, Carroll, for her service to the industry, perhaps an acknowledgement that she would miss her old rival's contribution to the frequently vigorous sector debate. "I'd like to thank Cynthia Carroll for her years of dedication and service," she said. "She will be missed." The reception to Shabangu's speech was muted. "We are viewing it with skepticism," said Abrie Olivier, (Southern African mining leader at Deloitte) at the conference following the minister's talk. "There have been inconsistent messages from the government about the challenges the industry faces, and about which direction policy will take." While Shabangu's presentation was 'mildly positive,' it still left the industry unclear about what the government intended to do regarding labor issues, and how far down the road it would go to wrest more earnings from miners for the national coffers. The minister's speech did little to shed light on the contentious draft Mineral and Petroleum Resources Development bill. The proposed law would license as yet unspecified minerals www.e-mj.com Standard Bank cocktail venue—live music and appreciative conference delegate. that would need ministerial consent before they could be exported. This could force coal and iron ore exporters, for example, to beneficiate their produce if they are to be granted an export license. Production levels and price would also be subject to government regulation. The bill also requires that the minister give permission for the "transfer of any interest in a listed company" engaged in mining or exploration. This opens the possibility of each and every share trade of miners on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange needing official blessing before being executed. Such wide-ranging and ambiguous regulations did little to raise South Africa's attractiveness to outside investors. According to Deloitte, South Africa is expected to receive only 1.2% of global mining investment this year, while traditional rival Australia is expected to haul in 26%. "The investment pipeline is not what it should be," Olivier said. Hard Talk Carroll, the soon-to-depart Anglo American CEO, was for her part equally gracious—at first. "Susan Shabangu has always spoken from the heart, as someone committed to the development of her country," said Carroll. "As always, it is both a pleasure and an honor to be sharing the platform with her." Once the pleasantries ended, however, she came out swinging. "The first truth is that there is no future for any society without law and order," she said, in a clear reference to government's feeble response to the previous year's unrest. The strikes and damage to equipment cost local industry in the region of US$1.5billion and a loss of more than 300,000 oz of platinum—an 11-year-low, according to the South African Chamber of Mines. "Public order is the bedrock without which civilization collapses," Carroll said. Carroll also touched on the looming possibility of shaft closures and retrenchments. Business, she said, needed to remain profitable in order to survive: "At times that requires tough choices. And tough choices can be unpopular." However, the boards of Anglo American and Anglo American Platinum were totally committed to ensuring a sustainable platinum business for the future, she said. Anglo American alone had invested more than US$15-billion since 1999, and the two companies planned to invest another US$12-billion over the next decade. South Africa had US$2.5-trillion in mineral reserves, but accessing them would require changes to the way mining was run. "This is an industry in crisis," Carroll said. Some might not agree with Carroll. Almost unnoticed within the platinum sector is the continuing development of the Bakubung mine, by Chinese-owned Wesizwe platinum. "We are looking at the long term," Wesizwe CEO Jianke Gao said at the sidelines of the conference. "We are not letMARCH 2013 • E&MJ; 39