C O P P E R O U T LO O K
major copper consumer due to a similar
growing need for power generation to support
urbanization, investment in overall infrastructure has only been about half of that for
China. "We expect copper demand to continue to be steady," Harris said. "The longterm demand outlook remains attractive."
Influenced by years of steady investment,
metal fundamentals have softened somewhat
and copper miners are now focusing on
adding value rather than tons. "This has been
very visible on the copper market, and from
the supply side. We strongly believe the copper market will be better supplied in 2014
and 2015," said Michael Widmer, head metals strategist, Bank of America Merrill Lynch.
"We also believe that there will be a risk of
moving into surplus in those years."
Chinese construction in terms of housing growth is expected to remain solid in
2013. "It is important to emphasize that
this growth means 'completions,' not 'new
starts' this year," said Max Layton, executive director, Goldman Sachs International.
"As far as housing in the United States,
one of the major ex-China constructionrelated copper consumers, a structural
recovery in residential construction is
under way and expected to continue."
Long term, Layton believes the next two to
www.e-mj.com
Source: Codelco.
Projection of world copper mine production by country. Note: Projections do not include potential projects or disruptions allowances.
three years should set the market up for
the next bull market beyond 2015.
Chilean Minister of Finance Felipe
Larrain referred to the situation with the
developed economies as a sort of "quantitative relaxing." "This policy coming
from the developed countries is affecting
the developing countries—including
JULY 2013 • E&MJ; 69