Engineering & Mining Journal

OCT 2018

Engineering and Mining Journal - Whether the market is copper, gold, nickel, iron ore, lead/zinc, PGM, diamonds or other commodities, E&MJ takes the lead in projecting trends, following development and reporting on the most efficient operating pr

Issue link:

Contents of this Issue


Page 54 of 91

OCTOBER 2018 • E&MJ 53 IRON ORE OUTLOOK in Brazil together with Vale, which has not been producing since 2015, all of BHP's mines are in Western Australia. Hancock Prospecting, a privately- owned emerging iron ore giant, controlled by Gina Rinehart, has grown rapidly in the past two years. The gradual startup of its Roy Hill mine during 2017 and 2018 has catapulted Hancock to the No. 6 ranking among the world's largest iron ore min- ers, just a few million tons behind Anglo American. With the acquisition of Atlas Iron in 2018, it seems Hancock will over- take Anglo and reach the fifth position. However, the measurement of corporate control at the production stage underesti- mates the real concentration of the iron ore sector, especially by the three largest com- panies. Large portions of total output do not enter the market, but are produced at cap- tive mines or mines, which have a protect- ed or restricted market. The corporate con- centration, if measured by the share of the major companies in global seaborne trade, is considerably higher. Vale alone controls almost 24% of the total world market for seaborne iron ore trade, and the three larg- est companies in 2017 controlled 60.6%, a decrease from 64.4% in 2016. Market Outlook Global economic growth in 2017 reached 3.7%, according to the IMF July World Eco- nomic Outlook update. This is higher than the anticipated 3.4% forecast at the start of 2017. The pickup in growth has been broad-based and both Asia and Europe have delivered upside surprises. Global growth is expected to increase and reach 3.9% in both 2018 and 2019, which is in line with the forecasts delivered at the start of 2018. However, IMF issues a warning: the expan- sion is becoming less evenly distributed and risks to the outlook are mounting. Amid rising oil prices, higher yields in the United States and escalating trade tension, the balance of risks has shifted further to the downside. The rate of expan- sion appears to have peaked in some major economies. In Japan, the EU and the Unit- ed Kingdom, downward revisions of the re- gional growth projections have been made in early 2018. Meanwhile, the near-term momentum of the U.S. is strengthening, as projected. China's growth projections, 6.6% for 2018 and 6.4% in 2019, reflects the country's reorganization of its economy and the concurrent slowdown. The main risk is, however, the announced and ex- pected tariff increases by the United States and retaliatory measures by trading part- ners, which have increased the likelihood of escalating and sustained trade actions. During 2017, world crude steel pro- duction increased by 3.8% or 62.4 million mt. For the first seven months of 2018, global steel growth was 5% compared to the same period last year. This points Next level conveyor performance Voith BeltGenius Voith BeltGenius is the new product family for monitoring, benchmarking and optimization of conveying systems. Due to the intelligent sensor and software technologies, BeltGenius enables mining companies to get full transparency of their performance. % of Rank Country 2017 World 2016 2016 1 Vale Brazil 0,366.5 16.8 0,349 01 2 Rio Tinto (share) U.K. 0,282.5 12.9 0,281 02 3 BHP Australia 0,268.3 12.3 0,262 03 4 FMG Australia 0,168.8 07.7 0,171 04 5 Anglo American U.K. 0,062.0 02.8 0,057 05 6 Hancock Prospecting Australia 0,058.0 02.7 0,043 07 7 ArcelorMittal U.K. 0,057.4 02.6 0,055 06 8 State of India* India 0,041.6 01.9 0,038 09 9 Metalloinvest Russia 0,040.3 01.8 0,041 08 10 CSN Brazil 0,029.9 01.4 0,032 10 Total World 2,187.0 2,130 *State of India comprises NMDC and Odisha Minerals In 2017, Hancock Prospecting unseats ArcelorMittal as the sixth largest iron ore producer.

Articles in this issue

Links on this page

Archives of this issue

view archives of Engineering & Mining Journal - OCT 2018