Engineering and Mining Journal - Whether the market is copper, gold, nickel, iron ore, lead/zinc, PGM, diamonds or other commodities, E&MJ takes the lead in projecting trends, following development and reporting on the most efficient operating pr
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TRUCKS & SHOVELS APRIL 2016 • E&MJ; 29 www.e-mj.com road market, also has market share in the smaller-hauler end of the mine truck market, offering three, four and fve-axle dump trucks with up to 46-mt payloads— most of which are available in AWD con- fgurations that enable their use for both in-pit and outbound road haulage. Scania has been researching and de- veloping driverless truck concepts for some time, and reports that testing of its haulers in real-world site conditions is not far off. Scania's customers in Australia are already discussing potential appli- cation opportunities for the future, with mining very near the top of the list. Currently, prototypes are being used to test the capabilities of Scania's re- mote-control technology. Scania said its Astator test vehicles have been devel- oped to the point where they can now function without a driver in the seat on a test track, running through simulations of loading and unloading under remote con- trol. They're also capable of safely dealing with obstacles on the road. Developers at Scania and researchers from technical colleges in Sweden are ex- amining the role driverless trucks could play in future mining scenarios. "Mines are environments that are especially well suited to self-driving vehicles," said Lars Hjorth, in charge of predevelopment with- in Autonomous Transport Solutions at Scania. "The area is contained and the operator can control what equipment or personnel are working in the area." The company noted that interest is increasing around the world in smaller and more fexible solutions involving spe- cialized mining trucks. "A truck solution is more cost effective, with the total cost per transported ton being signifcantly lower," said Hjorth. "The infrastructure costs are also reduced as trucks don't re- quire specially reinforced roads." In Australia, Scania said it is already talking with a number of customers re- garding potential applications for driv- erless trucks, for both off-road environ- ments and on-road usage. "We see a lot of opportunity for Scania to leverage its au- tonomous truck technology in the not-so- distant future in Australia," said Robert Taylor, general manager of Scania Austra- lia's Mining and Resources division. "Customers are already talking with us to fnd out how we can assist them to im- Looking Down the Road Parker Bay's Market Analysis and Forecast: Loading and Haul- age Equipment, released in early March, reported a 10-year low for large surface mining equipment shipments, which are now at levels not seen since the start of the commodities Super Cycle. With the current downturn approaching the end of its fourth year, the company's analysis of the global markets for large min- ing excavators/loaders and haul trucks plots the path forward with respect to the industry's expected equipment requirements and attendant shipments through 2020. All historical data contained in the report are derived from Parker Bay's Mobile Mining Equipment Database, which identifes machines by individual mine in more than 100 countries. According to the report, during a ten-year period up to 2014, global equipment manufacturers delivered 6,400 large exca- vators (20-mt-plus payload) and nearly 31,000 large trucks (100-mt-plus payload) with an installed value of nearly $80 bil- lion. While most of this new capacity was required to fuel the growth in mineral output, it became clear that by 2013, more mine capacity had been added than was required by underlying mineral requirements. The escalating oversupply, combined with slowing demand, initiated the downward spiral in mineral prices that continued through year-end 2015. This in turn compelled companies to close many mines, curtail output at others, and drastically cut capital expenditures including those allocated for the equipment covered by the report. Parker Bay's analysis examines the factors now impeding a recovery and those that will eventually spur a resumption of growth for these machinery markets. Chief among these fac- tors are: the excess capacity at mines—including more than 4,000 machines parked and available for resale and redeploy- ment when demand warrants it; the eventual requirement to re- place large numbers of the 9,000-plus excavators/loaders and 40,000-plus trucks now in service; and continued growth in mineral demand in spite of currently depressed prices. Among Parker Bay's key conclusions: • Very slow growth in mineral production through 2020 will warrant increases in installed machine capacity of less than 1.5% per year through 2020, compared with annual increases of 7%-10% per year during the past decade. • The current overhang of surplus machines will reduce near- term demand for new machines by as much as one-third during 2016 and will continue to reduce new machine re- quirements through 2018. • Replacement requirements will be the chief driver in the recovery that will begin in 2017. Despite efforts to ex- tend equipment service life and reduce the need for in- vestment in replacements, mines will eventually have to retire certain machines as they begin to require increased maintenance and repair and become simply uneconomical to continue working. Parker Bay estimates nearly 2,500 excavators/loaders and 12,000 trucks will reach this stage during 2015- 2020. As a result, a substantial majority of all machines shipped during this time will be required to simply main- tain the existing feet. The result of these combined factors will be an equipment market that continues at current depressed levels through 2016 and begins recovering in 2017. This recovery will escalate during 2018-2020 as these markets have in past growth cycles. But the slow growth in mineral demand will dampen this next cycle to the extent that projected 2020 shipments will still be as much as 25% below the 2012 peak. Source: The Parker Bay Company.